TRUMAN Index: Success of the EU Summit, Minsk Agreements’ Pause and Trump’s Dual Game
TRUMAN Agency presents the next quarterly index of Ukraine’s bilateral relations with the EU, the USA, China, Russia and NATO.
The smallest indicator of TRUMAN Index remains in the relations between Ukraine and Russia. It is (-) 3.2.
As we predicted, Putin's peacekeeping game stopped right after the elections. As a result, the index went down. On the one hand, during the reporting period, we see an active revision of the treaties with Russia, and in particular the non-prolongation of the so-called Big Agreement on Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership, - says Tamara Tachynska, senior partner of TRUMAN Agency.
The Kremlin has clearly made a bet on the change of authorities in Ukraine, in particular, to "comfortable" leaders for them. Future elections have impact on the stagnant peace process. According to our experts, the pause may go on until to March. If the Kremlin bet does not work out in the presidential race, then it may continue until October, when elections to the Verkhovna Rada take place.
Relations between Kyiv and Moscow are directly connected with the relations with Western partners.
The TRUMAN Index of Ukraine-EU relations is 1.95 now. It is necessary to note the success of the Ukraine-EU Summit in this direction, which gave comprehensive answers to the main issues of Ukrainian politics. The European aspirations of Ukraine were acknowledged and supported. Russia was called an aggressor, and the strategic role of Ukraine in the very sensitive issue of gas transit was confirmed.
At the same time, the struggle against the North Stream-2 is ongoing, and the prolongation of sanctions does not seem as an automatic process. Moreover, it causes internal discussions among the EU countries, Tamara Tachynska emphasizes.
Index of relations between Ukraine and the US is growing and now it is 1.22, which is higher than during the previous period, however, it is not the best. President Donald Trump continues to send rather ambiguous signals about cooperation with Vladimir Putin. But the State Department stubbornly guards the territorial integrity of Ukraine (Crimea Declaration). At the same time, Ukraine lost a great friend in Washington – John McCain. On the background of rumors about the possible resignation of the Pentagon head, James Mattis, Ukraine may lose its military ally. However, Donald Trump has taken a principled position on the cooperation of Germany (which is the main locomotive of the EU) with the Russian Federation in the project North Stream-2. It also can become a definite destabilizing factor in the Ukraine-EU-US triangle.
On this background, the relations with another powerful world player – China, could be a real breakthrough. However, our experts point out the lack of progress in the relations between Kyiv and Beijing. The TRUMAN Index is 0.69.
"While Beijing and Moscow demonstrate political rapprochement, Kyiv systematically develops a cultural cooperation, and sporadically promotes economic direction. Even the fact that 2019 is announced a year of China in Ukraine has been swept away into oblivion, TRUMAN Agency senior partner comments on the analysis of relations between Ukraine and China.
TRUMAN Agency experts evaluate all the manifestations of bilateral interaction, depending on the level of contacts and consequences for the Ukrainian side on a scale from minus 10 to plus 10 points. TRUMAN Index is the sum of points in each direction divided by the number of events in the research period.