The new TRUMAN Index: "Buy" of US commitment and a thorny road to NATO

Ukraine is trying to "buy" US loyalty with economic agreements and there is still no qualitative monitoring of the transition to NATO standards. Such trends were noted by experts during the presentation of the quarterly assessment of the quality of Ukraine's international cooperation - TRUMAN Index.

“This is a common trend of different countries towards the US. Basing on President Trump's business approach, the countries try to build business relations with the United States, Ukraine has also taken this path, in particular, it concerns an agreement with General Electric on the renewal of the rolling stock of Ukrzaliznytsia, says the author of the American direction of TRUMAN Index, the director of the New Europe Center Alyona Getmanchuk, - and we still have a lot of work ahead. Ukraine has to love not only foreign investments, but also foreign investors wishing to enter Ukraine's market.”

The index of relations with the United States rose in comparison with the beginning of 2017 and for this period managed to rise from 0.82 to 1.5. The last indicator of the index was significantly influenced by the decision to provide Ukraine with lethal weapons.

“In the 6th issue of TRUMAN Index in addition to traditional directions - the US, the EU, Russia and China - we included a new permanent topic. Today we present an assessment of Ukraine-NATO relations. During the period from November to February, it is 0.84 points. In this first TRUMAN Index on NATO we investigated the period before granting Ukraine the status of the aspiring country, "- says the senior partner of TRUMAN Agency Tamara Tachynska.

One of the factors influencing the interaction with NATO is the position of Hungary, which blocked the meeting of the Ukraine-NATO commission at the ministerial level twice due to the law on education. This could affect the invitation of Ukraine to the NATO summit in Brussels in July. Also today there is a question of appointing a civilian defense minister before the end of 2018 and transiting to NATO standards until 2020.

“There is very little time left, and Ukrainian officials talk about the different progress of the transition. Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak said that the transition has already been accomplished by 90%, and Ukraine's ambassador to NATO Vadim Prystayko speaks of 2/3 completed. This suggests that Ukraine needs a high-quality unified monitoring and evaluation of this process, " - says the author of the Ukraine-NATO relation in TRUMAN Index, deputy director of the New Europe Center Kateryna Zarembo.

Ukraine-EU TRUMAN Index holds about the same level for the past six months and now stands at 1.8. The dynamics of relations were determined not by the breakthrough, but by the continuation of the processes. Brussels expected the rapid pace of the selected changes from Ukraine. Ukraine continued to interfere with itself: by slowing down anti-corruption reforms and, in particular, by the law "Buy Ukrainian, pay Ukrainians".

The dynamics of the index of relations with China also does not differ drastically. China still remains exotic for Ukraine, and relations are largely related to cultural exchange.

And this direction remains one of the most promising for Ukraine. In particular, due to increased economic contacts.

“China is ready to invest $ 7 billion in Ukrainian infrastructure, innovation, agrarian and energy projects. We also believe that Ukraine's loss of credit for Naftogaz is only a temporary halt. We see a clear interest of the Chinese side in continuing cooperation with Naftogaz," - Tamara Tachynska said.

The index of the Russian direction remains negative and is -1.3. Quarter is characterized by President Putin's peacemaker game - the release of hostages, demonstration of readiness for dialogue. But the demonstration remained only a demonstration.

“The most interesting will be seen is the next report, which will include the current events. We see unprecedented steps to expel diplomats on the one hand, and Germany's support of the North Stream-2, on the other, this can obviously inspire Russia to the idea that not everything is lost and it's possible to negotiate with the West without significant concessions on the Ukrainian or other directions, " - the author of the Ukraine-Russia direction, first deputy of the New Europe Center Sergiy Solodkyy.

TRUMAN Index presents monitoring of developments in Ukraine's foreign policy in each of the areas, as well as an analysis of the approaches of partner countries (regions) on Ukraine for the researched period. In addition to qualitative analysis, each event in bilateral relations is rated on a scale of -10 to 10 points. The total score of the foreign policy direction, divided by the number of events in the reporting period is TRUMAN Index.

Details on the development of bilateral relations of Ukraine and the index of interaction with key partners can be found in the sixth issue of the TRUMAN Index on request.

Contacts: Tetiana Gaiduk, TRUMAN Agency's products curator tetianagaiduk@truman.ua